Can Strategic Voting Save Us?
Organized strategic voting campaigns ask something of voters that they are reluctant to do.
In her closing statement of the February 17th leaders’ debate, Ontario Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie made an appeal to NDP voters to support her party in order to unseat the Progressive Conservative government. This request is built off of the fear that this coming election will be a repeat of the 2018 and 2022 elections, where the PCs were carried to a majority on a divided opposition. Crombie is not the only person who has made an appeal to strategic voting in this campaign. Ashley Fox, the Ontario Liberal candidate in Perth—Wellington, suggested voters use the website “VoteWell” to determine if strategic voting is “needed” in their riding. NDP MPP Wayne Gates posted the 2022 election results, where the Liberals trailed far behind the NDP and PCs, and said that his constituency is a “two-way race,” a nudge to Liberal voters. Many candidates from both the NDP and Liberal Party have been calling on their electorate to vote strategically (in ridings where they believe it benefits them).
These candidates are asking something fairly big of their constituents. They want these voters not to choose the candidate that they most prefer, but rather the candidate who they believe has the best chance to defeat a PC candidate. The idea is sensible in theory, but there are questions about whether such arrangements are truly effective.
Does ‘Strategic Voting’ Work?
There is lots of evidence that Canadians do vote strategically; they make their choice based upon not who they want to be their representative, but who they do not want to be their representative. In 2019, a poll from Angus Reid suggested that 48% of Canadian voters said they make their choice on the basis of disliking another candidate. 26% of voters said they chose their candidate specifically to stop an opposing candidate. But the question is not “Do Canadians vote strategically,” it’s about whether organized strategic voting campaigns can be effective.
One of the most ambitious strategic voting campaigns carried out in Canada was Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams’ “Anything But Conservative” movement during the 2008 federal campaign. Williams, a Progressive Conservative himself, launched the campaign in 2007 in response to a feud with Stephen Harper’s federal government over equalization payments. The provincial PC caucus campaigned for NDP and Liberal candidates, and the result was that the Conservatives lost the three seats that they held, and had one of their worst modern performances in the province. Of course, this case is fairly unique because of the influence of a very popular Premier and a specific wedge issue between the province and the Conservative government. It also was targeted at specific constituencies, the message was clear: to vote “Anything But Conservative.”
Another notable strategic voting campaign took place in advance of the 1999 Ontario Election. This campaign was coordinated by a loose coalition of unions and community organizations that wanted to prevent the re-election of the Mike Harris PC government. The coalition was called the “Ontario Election Network,” and they endorsed the election of 14 Liberal candidates and 12 NDP candidates. In a 2006 study of the campaign, researchers were unable to ascertain whether it had a significant impact on the results. However, the Harris government was resoundingly re-elected in spite of the campaign, with the PCs receiving 45% of the popular vote. Whether or not it had an impact, it seems like it did not work.
When considering portions of the electorate that are large enough to change the outcome of an election, I argue that Canadians do not engage in ‘informed’ strategic voting. I do not believe they follow polls closely, I don’t believe that they check the past results of elections in their ridings. Instead, I think most voters work on a ‘gut feeling’ of who they believe has the best chance to win. This is still a form of strategic voting, but it is not the result of any kind of organized effort.
Should we vote strategically?
Non-partisans who advocate most strongly for strategic voting also tend not to be huge fans of the practice. They view it as a ‘necessary evil’ to avoid a worse outcome. They know that, in a better world, we could engage with our democratic system to elect a government that we can enthusiastically support. However, I believe that strategic voting campaigns ultimately depress voter engagement. People don’t like being told what to do with their privilege of voting, and they don’t like having limited options.
How do you get more people engaged in democracy? You have to give them something to vote for. The 2015 Federal Election had and continues to hold the highest voter turnout election since 1993. Turnout was up 7.2% from 2011, and turnout among new voters was up 17.7%. That happened because it was a change election that gave a lot of people something to be excited about. It’s no coincidence that one of Trudeau’s key campaign promises was to change the election system so that every vote would count. Whether you choose to vote strategically or encourage others to do so is up to you, but this much is clear: we must expect more from our politicians and our institutions to combat our crisis of political apathy. That starts with asking how we can get more people to feel like they can have a real positive impact by engaging with politics in this country.